by Louis-Vincent Gave, #1: The good, Security: driving into Paris from the south a week ago, the motorway was one long convoy of police vehicles. And sure enough, walking around Paris, cops are everywhere, with even back alleys and courtyards having a police car or gendarmerie vehicle stationed to keep watch. One almost has to worry that criminals in the rest of France are being given a chance to run wild. Geography of France. [A] thesis is that France has broken down into three “circular” zones that contain most of the French population in and around key metropolitan areas:

1. At the center are the winners of globalization who work in finance, media,knowledge-based companies, universities and the government. In order to cleanse the area from fellows working in other sectors, policies are adopted that help make real estate unaffordable. This scheme has been specially aided by the central bank maintaining very low interest rates, which have duly caused property prices to go through the roof.
2. Next sits a “collar” on the outer region of the city where immigrants live in subsidized dwellings and act as an effective indentured labor pool for those of the inner circle, working as babysitters, cooks, domestic helpers,waiters and Uber drivers. State subsidies for housing, education, public transport and schools are heavily deployed in this second circle.
3. Further out is the third circle which contains the rump of the French population, who, having missed the knowledge-based revolution,reside in hollowed-out smaller towns where shops are boarded up, hospitals and schools are closing, and property values are falling. This is home to about half of the French population.

#2: The bad and the dumbfoundingly stupid. As noted above, when countries cut off rebroadcasting of your ceremony and the IOC pulls your video from its website, you have failed to deliver on your brief. For most of the world, the shocking acts obviously included the overly religious imagery (a clear no-no in Olympic rules), the promotion of trans-genderism and the use of children in inappropriate contexts, some standing inches away from visible male genitalia. So this was the bad. But the dumbfoundingly stupid and—as a Catholic Frenchman—the most shocking scene by far, was the glorification of Marie Antoinette’s murder with a backdrop of the Ah ça ira, ça ira song that the sans-culottes of the late 18th century sang as they brought aristocrats to the guillotine.Leaving aside that this would have been deeply offensive to the Austrian and Hungarian delegation (Marie Antoinette was an Austrian princess), or to the Spanish King and his family (all Bourbons, as was Louis XVI) and who looked on appalled from the VIP stands at the representation of what would have been the murder of a great great-great aunt (having a Spanish grandmother, I am disappointed the Spanish king did not walk out). What is most shocking about the Marie Antoinette representation, and the Ah ça ira song is that it shows that the guys who composed the show, and those who paid their bills, think they are on the side of the revolutionaries. The reason I highlight this is that the coming months are bound to be fiscally tough for France (see France’s Olympics Scale Challenges). The European Union is asking France to shave €25bn from its 2024 budget and the likelihood that its 2025 budget is approved by Brussels is even lower than India leading the Olympic medal table. Against such a backdrop, who in their right mind would want to bring up France’s bloody revolutionary past?It was just last year that French suburbs (the outer ring) suffered devastating riots. In 2019, the gilets jaunes (the third estate) drove the country to a standstill,tore down speed cameras on roads and stormed government ministries. Do France’s elite really think that, if there is another revolution, they won’t be the ones having to flee to London, Geneva, Brussels or Frankfurt? W Conclusion. Budgetary cuts have to be made and these are likely to be painful. When these cuts are proposed, in the coming weeks and months, will inviting Celine Dion and Lady Gaga, and blowing €115mn on a party for the global glitterati, end up looking like a “let them eat cake” moment? If so, France’s leaders may well regret ever having made fun of Marie Antoinette. And for what it is worth, I know the “let them eat cake” quote was “fake news”, as Marie Antoinette never said this. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for this €115mn party, thrown for the world’s great and good, nor for the €25bn in budgetary cuts that Brussels is asking for. It brings me back to the old dictum about bread and circuses. Today, the circus is going great; the Olympics are a lot of fun and readers who can go, should go. But there is a reason the bread comes before the circus in “panem et circenses”. The autumn is likely to prove challenging. Especially if, by then, all of France’s police force is on holiday following all the overtime worked. More From Gavekal Research: