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The debates will have no impact on the 2024 election

9/27/23
from The Gray Area:
9/28/23:
Last night was the 2nd Republican debate for the 2024 presidential election. As with the first, former President Trump did not attend. The result was pretty much the same, no one distinguished themselves beyond their current national image. “If I was at home watching that,” Mr. DeSantis said, “I would have changed the channel.” A honest appraisal. It doesn't matter. These Republican primary debates will have no impact on the 2024 election. Sure, a VP candidate may emerge for the Republicans, but that decision will be made with or without the debates. The Republican Party needs to ask itself are any more debates useful. There are only 2 things that matter to the 2024 Presidential Election and neither will be resolved in these debates.
  1. How many states will the Democrats be successful in keeping Trump off the ballot . And, what will the Republican Party do about it?
  2. Who replaces Biden on the Democrat ticket?
Lets look at each.
  1. Trump not on the ballot? Trump is going to get the Republican nomination.  There doesn't seem to be anything that will keep him from it.  So the Democrats have another plan. They have already begun the process of identifying states, preparing legal briefs and working the voters to keep him off the ballot in as many states as possible. It will happen consistent with the first guilty verdict from one of Trump's criminal indictments (he already has one in New York), or before, if things don't look like they are going in the direction the Democrats hope. This will create a never before seen Constitutional election crisis. Can you have an election when one of the major candidates is not allowed on all state ballots? That depends on what the Republicans do about it in those states. And how, if at all, the Supreme Court has to get involved.
  2. Biden not Democrat's candidate. It is almost certain that Biden will not be the 2024 Democrat Presidential candidate in 2024. It will happen due to  his age and consistent cognitive and physical problems he has demonstrated attempting to perform the job the past 3 years. It has been an embarrassment to those who voted for him and to the country. But, that will not be the real reason. His impending legal problems will be the real reason though they will be spun by the Democrat Party as politically motivated, the same way Trump and the Republican Party describes those he is fighting. But, the facts that will start coming out in the next week or two will be hard for the Democrat power base to ignore. Behind closed doors, much like the way Biden was anointed in 2020, a decision will be made to offer up other candidates. Who would that be?
  • VP Kamala Harris cannot win.
  • California Governor Newsom has been lurking on the perimeter and will be offered up. He already has a debate with DeSantis being scheduled. With the exodus of California citizens and the horrid conditions in the state, it will be hard for him to carry any state other than the major deep blues like CA, Ore, Wash, Illinois, New York, Mass, DC, & Minnesota.
  • Buttigieg, Warren, Bernie, ..., no.
So, who then? My money is on Michelle Obama. Let's wait and see. With Trump off the ballot in states like the above, plus. maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, to name a few, and a new presidential candidate from the Democrats, the 2024 campaign will look like nothing we have seen before. More From The Wall Street Journal: More From The New York Times:


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