5 takeaways from the New Hampshire primary
Below are some takeaways — including from a Democratic primary that President Biden appears to have won easily. 1. It looks all but over
2. Haley voters were meh about her, which says something about Trump
3. The other big exit poll numbers A few other findings that struck us from the early exit polls: Fewer New Hampshire voters denied the results of the 2020 election (51 percent) than did Iowa voters (66 percent). This again reinforces how unusual New Hampshire’s electorate is; polls generally show around 6 in 10 Republicans reject the 2020 results. But also consider that even among this moderate Republican primary electorate, a majority are election-deniers. 67 percent of voters opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions, compared with 27 percent who favored one. 42 percent of voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime — up from 31 percent in Iowa. Again, this could have major implications for the general election, even if the vast majority of those voters ultimately rally to Trump. 4. Haley’s reasons for staying in appear elusive
5. Biden’s apparent big win erases any doubt The GOP primary wasn’t the only one in which a seemingly decisive verdict was rendered — not just for the state, but probably for the rest of the calendar. The early results suggested Biden would win the Democratic primary overwhelmingly, despite not campaigning in the state and his name not appearing on the ballot over a primary calendar dispute. Technically speaking, we don’t yet know how many votes Biden got, because the vast majority of ballots are write-ins that won’t be tabulated for a while. Only 19 percent have been allocated to him so far. But that plus the rest of the write-in votes led Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), 72 percent to 21 percent, and it’s likely that a huge chunk of that 72 percent will go to Biden. Democrat Marianne Williamson was taking another 5 percent. The result isn’t hugely surprising, but it sent a strong signal that there’s little doubt about Biden winning the Democratic nomination again.
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