Jobs Headline Confusion

from The Gray Area:
there is Jobs Headline Confusion. The Jobs numbers don't add up. Until that is, you add in the impact of immigration. There are 1M fewer native American workers employed than there were in 2020! That is not racist, just fact. Does that sound like a healthy economy?

US nonfarm employment rose 303,000 in March, blowing past expectations and maybe throwing some cold water on rate cut expectations. According to Peter Boockvar, Maudlin Economics, there is a lot of confusing data, though. Key Points:

  • Some 232,000 of the 303,000 job gains came from the private sector.
  • All the gains came from those aged over 55 and under 25. The “prime age” 25-54 group actually lost jobs.
  • A 469,000 increase in the labor force brought the unemployment rate down to 3.8% from last month’s two-year high of 3.9%.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% in the last 12 months.
  • Most of the new jobs came from the leisure/hospitality, private education/healthcare and government sectors.
  • Manufacturing and information technology showed no jobs growth.
Bottom Line: This report has more differentiating data points than usual. The labor market looks quite healthy on the surface, at least. But it’s hard to reconcile this data with the idea inflation will keep diminishing, or that the Fed will cut rates three times this year. Maybe next month will bring more clarity.

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