Republican - Nikki Haley

Interesting New Hampshire 'exit poll' opinions

1/24/24
from The Gray Area:
1/24/24:
The New Hampshire Republican Primary is over. Donald Trump prevailed by 54% - 43%. The only surprise that Nikki Haley would continue her campaign with Trump's momentum seemingly growing. She must have good advance polling numbers coming from the next primary stop, her home state of South Carolina. In addition, two analysis of the exit polling from New Hampshire offer and interesting view. The first from a right leaning tweet. The second from the left wing Washington Post. This seems consistent from an allegation earlier in the week of Democrat support: You have to ask yourself why Democrat money and voters want Republican Nikki Haley so bad? Is it they fear Trump so much? Or, they don't fear Haley so much? Or, both?  Or, that they want anyone other than Joe Biden? Maybe? The Washington Post focused on these results: A few other findings that struck us from the early exit polls:
  • Fewer New Hampshire voters denied the results of the 2020 election (51 percent) than did Iowa voters (66 percent). This again reinforces how unusual New Hampshire’s electorate is; polls generally show around 6 in 10 Republicans reject the 2020 results. But also consider that even among this moderate Republican primary electorate, a majority are election-deniers.
  • 67 percent of voters opposed a federal law banning most or all abortions, compared with 27 percent who favored one.
  • 42 percent of voters said Trump wouldn’t be fit to serve as president if he’s convicted of a crime — up from 31 percent in Iowa. Again, this could have major implications for the general election, even if the vast majority of those voters ultimately rally to Trump.
  • The early results suggested Biden would win the Democratic primary overwhelmingly, despite not campaigning in the state and his name not appearing on the ballot over a primary calendar dispute.
The first thing I noticed is Biden is declared the winner even though he was not on the ballot. A dispute over the primary calendar they said was the reason. What that means was Democrats did not want either Iowa or New Hampshire (not blue enough states) to come first in primary order any more, but Republicans continued with that traditional schedule, so Democrats pulled out. Dean Philips, who gets zero attention in the 20224 race got 21%! Joe Biden needs all the help he can get. Next was that 60%+ of Republicans are 'election deniers'. That is going to be pushed through 2024 and associated with the 'insurrection' and 'save our democracy' narratives. Among this analysis you also get the message that 2/3rds of New Hampshire supports abortion. Technically true, but notice they said "banning most or all abortions". I haven't seen this spccific poll, but have seen many others, and what this does is combine at least two segments of the results of a poll, "most & all". In other polls going back a decade or more, polls on abortion come out generally in 5 categories that look something like this:
  • Abortion for all, free & easy, ~20% (including post birth abortions. drops to about 5%)
  • Abortion with minor restrictions, ~20%
  • Abortion with some restrictions, ~20%
  • Abortion with major restrictions, ~20%
  • Ban Abortion, ~20%
It is pretty easy to say that all of the first four categories of response support abortion. In this example ~80%, though 3 of the 4 categories have different definitions of acceptable. But, you will hear this over and over again the rest of the year, as the Democrats believe that abortion is the number 1 issue they can win on in many states. It, therefore, will be hyped, and spun, as nauseum. Vary your news sources folks, to get the whole picture. But, even then you have to work through the spin & political narratives. More From The Washington Post:


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