Venezuela

Venezuela on a Dangerous Path

8/22/24
by Patrick Watson,
from Maudlin Economics,
8/22/24:
Why You Should Read: Venezuela is poised to destabilize further following last month’s disputed election, according to Geopolitical Futures analyst Allison Fedirka. If Nicolas Maduro and the opposition can’t reach some kind of deal it may become a pariah state - of which Maduro may not be solely in charge. Key Points: More than 1,300 politically motivated arrests have been confirmed since July 28, with many more detentions and disappearances reported. The legislature is advancing regime-friendly measures to authorize further crackdowns. Meanwhile, the opposition is rallying international support. Traditional allies like Brazil, Mexico and Colombia have called on Maduro to allow impartial election audits. Most countries are unwilling or unable to intervene further, but many have a vested interest in Venezuelan stability. Some 43% of Venezuelans say they want to leave the country – a potential burden for neighbors that would receive them. Washington would like to reduce its role in regional security and hopes to see Brazil take more responsibility. The Maduro regime is in no position for talks with the opposition. It will likely opt to remain in power by force. Bottom Line: The fate of Venezuela’s oil isn’t the only issue. North Korea-style pariah states tend to cause long-term regional problems. South America may be at an important turning point. More From Maudlin Economics (subscription required):


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