Why hurricane season is suddenly quiet — and what’s in store

Atlantic hurricane activity is usually nearing its peak at this time of year, and it seemed as if this August would be no exception. Tropical waters are extraordinarily warm, and two hurricanes have already pounded U.S. shores.

So why — despite predictions that this year’s hurricane season would be historically active — are the tropics suddenly so quiet?

There is a combination of factors demonstrating how even the most confident long-term forecasts are subject to unpredictable short-term influences.

An unusual African monsoon season is not producing the sort of atmospheric seeds that typically go on to become hurricanes. Air high above the tropical Atlantic is so warm that it’s actually preventing storms from brewing. Cyclical global rainfall patterns are creating stormy patterns elsewhere.

Those conditions won’t last, meteorologists said, though it’s difficult to say when tropical cyclone activity will pick back up. But they stressed: The pause isn’t reason to discount the threat of dangerous storms in the months ahead.

“Even the busy seasons have these kinds of lulls in them,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. “This is still the time to prepare, because there are storms coming.”

This season has already been more active compared with usual seasons, to be sure.

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