Investors Still Face Fog of Uncertainty on Economy, Fed

Investors’ nerves have been soothed recently by reassuring economic data. But the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy both remain unusually uncertain, meaning more volatility could be in store.

The prospects for a soft landing got a boost this week, as data showed consumer-price inflation continuing to slow, in line with expectations, even as retail sales saw a surprising surge in July.

Yet Thursday’s retail sales report wasn’t quite as good as it looked. The headline figure jumped 1% from a month earlier, Commerce Department figures showed, crushing economist estimates of a 0.3% gain. But that was largely because of a rebound in auto sales, which took a hit in June from a widespread cyberattack on dealerships. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales rose just 0.4% in July.

Meanwhile, industrial production figures from the Federal Reserve, also released on Thursday, came in weak, showing a 0.6% decline in July from June. The Federal Reserve said disruptions from Hurricane Beryl dragged on that figure by around 0.3 percentage points. Even stripping that out, though, the decline was worse than expectations for a 0.1% fall. June’s reading was also revised down.

American households boosted their retail spending last month, with strong vehicle sales helping to drive a higher-than-expected reading for last month.

Retail sales—a measure of spending at stores, online and in restaurants—rose a seasonally adjusted 1% in July from the month before, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

That was a strong pickup from June, when sales were revised down to a 0.2% decrease.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected retail sales rose just 0.3% in July.

“The ongoing resilience of consumer spending should ease recession fears,” said economist Michael Pearce of Oxford Economics.

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