Democrats’ surprisingly close Ohio special election loss, in context

Democrats continue to confront a confusing 2024 election picture. The polls keep showing President Biden struggling in the presidential race, but other signs — actual elections, for example — keep pointing in a more encouraging direction.

High on that list is how Democrats have done in special elections. A case in point: Tuesday’s sleepy special in Ohio’s 6th District.

While virtually nobody paid attention to the race, unheralded and underfunded Democrat Michael Kripchak was losing by less than 10 points in a district that Biden lost in 2020 by 29 points. For a time Tuesday night, it appeared as though it could have been even closer.

Democrats have over-performed in special elections throughout the 2023-2024 election cycle, but this House race was one of the biggest swings to date.

As for what it actually could mean? Some context is in order.

The Democrat was far outspent

Republican state Sen. Michael Rulli, now representative-elect, outspent Kripchak, a former research physicist in the military who most recently worked as a waiter, $571,000 to about $7,000 as of May 22, according to campaign finance reports.

Outside groups including the national parties basically ignored the district because it had been uncompetitive in recent presidential elections.

The district is unusual

Despite its redness, this eastern Ohio district is unusual. As Kyle Kondik of the Crystal Ball has noted, the current version of it actually would have gone for Barack Obama by nearly eight points in 2008. So it swung about 37 points in presidential elections between 2008 and 2020.

None of the country’s 434 other congressional districts featured a bigger swing toward Republican presidential candidates over those 12 years.

On the one hand, it’s gone very red. On the other, it has been far less red relatively recently. And it’s difficult to apply any lessons here to many other districts.

The turnout was scant

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