How Blue Cities and Counties Inflate Red States’ Homicide Rates

During 2019 and 2020, the nation saw a shocking 30% surge in homicide rates, the most substantial single-year increase in more than a century.

This alarming escalation in violence has ignited intense debates and discussions, pushing us to explore the profound and urgent reasons behind this surge in violence.

A recent report by Third Way, a think tank that bills itself as being “center-left,” has generated considerable attention by asserting that red states have had consistently experienced higher homicide rates than blue states over the past two decades.

However, a recently released paper from The Heritage Foundation reveals significant flaws in that argument. The left’s concealed narrative hides the reality of higher homicide rates in Democratic-leaning counties.

Crime Data Should Be Analyzed at Local Level. A noteworthy example of that is Travis County, Texas, which was won by Democrats Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. That county, situated in the traditionally Republican state of Texas and predominantly comprising the city of Austin, had initiated measures to reallocate more than one-third of resources from law enforcement to prioritize funding for COVID-19 and mental health services in 2021.

Travis County homicides saw a staggering 120% increase outside of Austin city limits in 2021, and the actual city of Austin now stands at 15th on a list of cities with the highest homicide rates in the United States.

A Different Story at the County Level

A different narrative emerges when looking at homicide rates by county. Some counties experience disproportionately high homicide rates, skewing the overall state averages.

It’s worth noting that these counties may have different political leanings, compared with the rest of their respective states.

Averaging homicide rates across counties, the data tells a different story. On average, counties that voted for Republican Donald Trump have a lower homicide rate, 4.06 per 100,000 people, while counties that voted for Biden have a higher rate of 6.52 per 100,000 people.

Proceeding with Caution

Statistical analysis can be a powerful tool for informing public policy decisions, but it’s crucial to approach reports like Third Way’s critically. Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the Third Way report paints an incomplete picture.

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