Homeland Threat Assessment 2024

Terrorism, both foreign and domestic, remains a top threat to the Homeland, but other threats are increasingly
crowding the threat space. During the next year, we assess that the threat of violence from individuals radicalized
in the United States will remain high, but largely unchanged, marked by lone offenders or small group attacks
that occur with little warning. Foreign terrorist groups like al-Qa’ida and ISIS are seeking to rebuild overseas, and
they maintain worldwide networks of supporters that could seek to target the Homeland.

In addition to the enduring terrorism threat, we expect illegal drugs produced in Mexico and sold in the United
States will continue to kill more Americans than any other threat. During the past year, US-based traffickers hav e
become more involved in the mixing and pressing of fentanyl, contributing to more lethal mixes of this already
deadly drug.

This year, record encounters of migrants arriving from a growing number of countries have complicated border
and immigration security. While monthly encounters have fallen from record highs in December, overall
encounters for the fiscal year are on pace to nearly match 2022’s record high total. As part of the overall increas e
in migration, we have also encountered a growing number of individuals in the Terrorist Screening Data Set
(TSDS), also known as the “watchlist.” Inclusion in the TSDS ranges from known associates of watchlisted
individuals, such as family members, to individuals directly engaged in terrorist activity.

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