In a normal year, the GOP should sweep. But 2022 isn’t normal.

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from The Washington Post,

When it comes to predicting midterm elections, it’s difficult to distinguish between insightful nonconformity and wishful thinking.

The conventional wisdom, well-rooted in history and data, suggests the Democrats should be toast this fall. But beware, say the dissenters, because 2022 is not a normal year, and it will not play out in a normal way.

The dissenters may be onto something, even if the case for a Republican sweep is strong.

If the polling seems lethal for Democrats, so does history. In midterms, voters often toss out vulnerable members of the incumbent party who swept in on earlier tides.

If the polling seems lethal for Democrats, so does history.

Dissenters from the Midnight for Democrats view don’t disagree with most of this, but their case is rooted in a different and plausible claim: After the wild presidency of Donald Trump and the radicalization of the Republican Party, there’s reason to believe 2022 does not fit neatly into the old paradigms.

If the public isn’t wild about Democrats, they like Republicans even less. That Pew survey found that 57 percent of Americans had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, but 61 percent had an unfavorable view of Republicans.

This means that many Democrats who take a critical view of Biden — often because they don’t think he’s fighting Republicans hard enough — are still telling pollsters they’re determined to vote Democratic in the midterm elections

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