Another Jobs Miss. And, an Upside?

from The Gray Area:

The November Jobs Report has been roundly described as 'disappointing'. It was well under the half a million jobs growth expectation. Other indicators support this view and still others indicate some positive signs.

In February 202 we had 152.8M jobs. Today it is 148.81M, or 3.7M below the pre-pandemic level.

The pandemic is blamed by the Biden administration for everything and especially jobs. There is certainly some truth to that with jobs, especially going back to 2020, and maybe even the Delta variant earlier this year, given the media's fear mongering and their 'demon of the un-vaccinated' reports. Biden's anti-growth agenda is also a big part of the problem, now increased by the threat of vaccine mandates, all leading to the 'Great Resignation'. There are still 10M jobs open with no one to fill them. Yet some states, Texas & Florida to be specific are doing quite well as they react to COVID realistically and do whatever they can to minimize the damage done by the Biden Administration.

In search of a fair and concise summary of the November Jobs Report, here is a review from Maudlin Economics: The November jobs report confounded many analysts as it both missed expectations and showed some odd internal inconsistencies. As always, Peter Boockvar cuts through the numbers to tell us what they mean. Key Points: November payrolls grew just 210,000, far below the 550,000 Wall Street estimate. Labor force growth of 594,000 was still enough to push the unemployment rate down to just 4.2%. The participation rate ticked up to 61.8%, highest since March 2020 when it was 62.6%. Average weekly earnings rose 0.5% from October and are up 4.8% in the last year. Leisure/hospitality wages continued rising sharply but service sector jobs growth seems to be slowing. Labor supply remains a big challenge. Bottom Line: This report may look disappointing at first but Boockvar still sees enough internal improvement to think the Fed will stay on course and maybe quicken the taper plan.

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