'Everything's open that wants to be'

from The Gray Area:
Today's March jobs numbers are actually pretty good according to Maudlin economics, but remember the impacts of increasing inflation. March payrolls saw a net job gain of 431k, about 60k under the estimate, but completely offset, and then some, by the 95k upward revision to the two previous months. Unemployment rate = 3.6%. That is now just one tenth off the February 2020 level of 3.5% before everything hit the fan. The more comprehensive U6 rate which also includes discouraged workers and those working part time who want full time, fell by 3 tenths m/o/m to just 6.9%. That is just one tenth away from matching the lowest level since 1994... After jumping over the past 2 months, the % of unemployed that left their jobs to go elsewhere moderated to 13% from 15.1% in February and which compares with the 10 yr average of 10%. The participation rate did tick up by one tenth as expected to 62.4%, but still is 100 bps from its February 2020 level. Bottom line, it was another good jobs report, as we know, there has been greater demand for workers than are out there. We saw in February there were more than 11m job openings which compares to the number of unemployed at 5.9mm in March. This all said, this is likely as good as it gets as jobs data is always lagging.  What comes next?  Signs are growing that the consumer is responding to higher inflation in kind with less spending and the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy, like housing and auto's, are getting negatively impacted. Eventually as this continues, the job hiring will slow. Wayne Gretzky taught us about skating to where the puck is going. The Fed only skates to where it's been and that's why the unemployment rate is back to pre Covid levels, inflation is at 8% and they are only just starting to respond. More From Maudlin Economics:

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