Deal or No Deal, the U.S.-China Relationship Is Beyond Repair

Are we nearing a deal to end the U.S.-China trade war? President Trump seems to think so. “We’re getting very, very close,” he told a group of governors visiting the White House in February.

Citing “substantial progress” in recent negotiations, Trump postponed a March 1 deadline that would have sharply increased the rate of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods. Trump said he hoped a meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, most likely in late March at Mar-a-Lago, would become a “signing summit.”

Trump’s lunge for a deal may be driven in part by the fast-advancing U.S. electoral calendar. As Democrats begin lining up to run against him next year, the President may be hoping to avoid the stock-market gyrations and economic pain an escalating trade war might soon begin to inflict.

He could surely use what he sees as a big political win on China at a time when multiple investigations, increasingly aggressive Democratic lawmakers, his failure to build a border wall and embarrassing public testimony from his former personal lawyer Michael Cohen are all clouding his political horizons.

But as with his would-be reset with Russia, Trump can’t change the structural game with China with a single agreement. Although Trump entered office predicting he would improve relations with Moscow, lawmakers of both parties continue to accuse Russia of interference in U.S. elections and various other crimes. Sanctions remain in place and may well expand. Neither Trump’s praise nor congressional punishment has persuaded Russia to change course.

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