Five facts that make Republican chances for November promising

by Joe Arlinghaus,

Please allow me to offer five simple reasons why I still believe the Democrats will not have a major victory in 8 weeks.

Before I offer these reasons let me also just ask you to remember the chaos and surprising results of 2016. Like it or not, many of the old rules are not in play anymore.

Here are five facts that make Republican chances for November still promising:

1. Polling Volatility – After labor day, every polling operation shifts their numbers to what they believe are “likely” voters rather than all registered voters. There is a widespread assumption in every poll that the passion this year is all in the Democratic party and so those polls immediately give double digit advantages nationwide to the Left. But polling science has dramatically suffered for many years making margins of error much much larger than in the past. These polls are just not reflective today of what will happen in November. It simply does not matter at all what polls say eight weeks out.
2. Massive Economic Advantage – Although radical Leftists could not care less about the strong Trump economy, many many voters in the middle do care and will care when they vote. They may hate Donald Trump but they will understand that Republicans deserve full credit for the good economy and Democratic control of Congress means a recession.
3. Extremist Democrat Candidates – In race after race nationwide the Democratic base is electing very radical socialist candidates and those candidates scare more moderate voters. In the last few weeks before the election, the Republican Party will put that extremism front and center which will hurt the value of Democrat passion.
4. Extraordinary Republican Candidates Nationwide – Just as the Democrats will suffer from their extremists, we will profit from many fresh faces. Though the national media will not give this dichotomy much play, in race after race the quality of both Republican candidates will keep those candidates in the hunt.
5. Senate Structural Advantage – Although the House is a tougher battle, the House races will profit from a massive advantage in Senate races. There are 26 incumbent Democrats up for re-election and 12 of those will be very close races with a Republican victory possible. Despite the fears in Texas, Ted Cruz will win re-election as will at least 6 of the other 7 Republican seats.

Democratic passion is real and is probably at its peak this week with the Kavanaugh Supreme Court hearings but that peak will not hold. There is no question that they will have strong turnout but I don’t believe they can overwhelm Republican voters. 2 years of attacks on the President and predictions of disaster have maintained the passion of their base but it has also brought a strong desire together among Republicans to deny those crazy fanatics their blue wave.

Losses in the House are likely but gains in the Senate are even more likely.

More important than anything right now is that we fight and fight just as hard as fall of 2016. This election will have many very close races. Democrats can win every one of those close races but so can we. All 12 of the Senate races where a Republican challenger is within striking distance of a Democrat will be decided by 5% of the vote in either direction. Such a large number of opportunities is unheard of.

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