Many polls have come out in the past 3 days attempting to describe what the impact was from Tuesday debate.   The result is the usual confusion from conflicting polls.  Is Harris now up 5 points? Is it still 46% - 45% Harris? Are they tied at 45%? Trump pollster touts postdebate bump for GOP nominee. Trump pollsters  said they conducted a survey of 1,893 likely voters in seven battleground states Wednesday, one day after former President Trump and Harris debated. Fabrizio and Tunis said a predebate survey of 5,600 battleground state voters found Trump and Harris deadlocked at 46% support. The postdebate poll showed Trump leading 48% to 46%. Harris Extends Lead Over Trump After First Presidential Debate. The Democratic nominee leads the Republican by 5 points, 50% - 45%, among 3,204 likely voters. Reuters/Ipsos conducted two-day poll following Tuesday’s face-off surveyed 1,690 adults nationwide, including 1,405 registered voters. Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Trump by 5 points; Harris 47% of registered voters nationwide, Trump 42% of registered voters. Donald Trump Gets Good Sign in New Economist/YouGov Poll that says he has closed the gap on Vice President Kamala Harris for the first time in over a month. In the latest survey by the pollster conducted from September 8 to September 10, out of 1,626 U.S. adults, the presidential candidates were tied at 45 percent. It is the first time that Harris didn't lead Trump in the weekly poll since July, when the former president was leading his Democratic opponent by 3 percentage points (44 percent to 41 percent) shortly after Harris entered the race. We all know that polls are designed to establish an opinion, not report on one. The group surveyed can be weighted to one side or the other, the type of voter can be different, the quality of the questions can be different, the location of surveys can make a difference, and many more variables.  Thus it should be expected that polls will always conflict, especially in the 21st Century when journalism has moved from news reporting to pushing political narratives. There are a couple of truths to be gleaned from this weeks polls. 1. VP Harris won the Tuesday night debate based opinions of a majority of reviewers of all political stripes, this writer included.  While on the subject, it is instructive to see that the difference in the debate was not quality or substance, but style.  A politician who did not answer questions, but spoke smoothly, beat a non-politician who spoke using plain words, yet often rambled and jumped from topic to topic. Neither a politician who says nothing or a non-politician who rambles is a quality debate performance or a quality candidate for President.  These are arguments of style. The substance of their positions should be the deciding factor.  Whether it will or not remains to be seen. 2. All the above polls, except one, is in the margin of error. 3. The above polls vary in the following substantive ways:

• likely voters
• likely voters in battleground states
• registered voters
• range of survey groups; 1,893 - 3,204
• include 3rd party candidates or not.

4. Who is providing the poll data. What this means is:

• you cannot compare likely voters to registered voters.  They are different animals.
• Likely voters nationwide are different than likely voters in battleground states.  Nationwide voters sampled can be weighted to any region or state, which will skew the results.
• If Trump or Harris are providing poll results, they should be assumed as biased reporting.  However, it is understood that internal campaign polling is better than news or organization or nationwide polling. Why?  Campaigns want and need the truth.
• size of survey can give you a feeling the poll might be more accurate, but not necessarily.  If the larger survey number polled more people in populous states like Texas or California, that will affect the results one way or the other.
• A poll includes 3rd party candidates is better than one that does not.

My view is the one that will  make a difference in this election is the battleground state's poll. Above that is internal Republican polling showing Trump up 48% - 46%. Real Clear Politics poll averages makes a business out of this and they say today: More From FoxNews: More From The Hill: More From Morning Consult: More From Newsweek: