Democrats

The 2024 Presidential Election Comes Down to Only Seven States

3/22/24
from The Wall Street Journal,
3/22/24:

America is home to 336 million people across 50 states and the District of Columbia. Yet the 2024 presidential race will be decided by seven states with less than a fifth of the U.S. population. These battlegrounds will get almost all the attention. How most states will vote is already fairly certain. Political pros expect Donald Trump to take 24 states and 219 electoral votes; Joe Biden can likely count on 20 states and the District of Columbia with 226 electoral votes. (This assumes the same outcome as in 2020 in the two states that award votes by congressional district—Mr. Trump carries Maine’s rural Second District and Mr. Biden Nebraska’s Omaha-area Second District.) That leaves seven key states with 93 votes: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Mr. Trump carried all of them except Nevada in 2016. In 2020, he took North Carolina by 1.34 points; Mr. Biden carried the other six by between 0.23 and 2.78. To prevail, Mr. Biden needs 45 of these states’ electoral votes; Mr. Trump, 51. Reaching either threshold will require winning at least three of the states.

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