This isn't the 'zombie virus'.

For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. Historically suboptimal growth? Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. The coronavirus obviously qualifies as an exogenous event. But that doesn’t mean a textbook two-quarter recession, although it certainly may. Financial markets aren’t waiting to find out what COVID-19 will do. Much of the selling is fear of the unknown. We actually face two concurrent crises. One is about public health, the other about the economy and markets. They won’t necessarily track each other. We might find the virus is less deadly and infectious than feared but that the fear itself (plus the control and containment measures) harms the economy. I am pretty confident in two things. First, this is going to be a long slog. The virus will spread slowly but widely. The containment measures are simply buying time. There’s no need to panic, but we should all take common-sense protective measures. Second, I think we’ll get through this. Not without some damage and tragic loss of life, but it won’t be the end of the world. This is not the zombie virus.

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