Weak Jobs Report Clouds the Economic Picture

3/8/19
from The New York Times,
3/8/19:

Employers increased payrolls by only 20,000 in February, a stark contrast to the two preceding months.

The Labor Department released its monthly hiring and unemployment figures for February on Friday morning, providing one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy.

■ 20,000 jobs were added last month. Analysts had expected a gain of about 175,000, according to MarketWatch. It was the 101st straight month of job gains, but the weakest report since September 2017. ■ The unemployment rate was 3.8 percent. It was 4 percent in January. ■ Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4 percent after growing by 0.1 percent in January. The year-over-year gain is now 3.4 percent.

Putting the weakness in perspective January’s payroll gains were exhilarating. February’s numbers were disappointing. Together they offer a potent reminder that each monthly employment report from the Labor Department captures just a moment in time. Longer-term trends are what matter, and the streak of job growth continues to set records.

Soon after the report’s release, President Trump celebrated the economy’s strength on Twitter.

The sluggish job growth was in stark contrast to the two preceding months, both of which look even stronger after revisions announced on Friday. January’s gains were revised to 311,000 and December’s final estimate was 227,000.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, pointed to several possible reasons for February’s anemic jobs growth. “Manufacturing has been weak, and there was lousy weather across the country,” she said. “That’s still disruptive.”

The construction industry’s fortunes are closely tied to the weather, and that sector shed 31,000 jobs. Some of the layoffs that big retailers have announced may also be starting to trickle through.

The labor reports so far this year could still reflect some of the confusion and delays prompted by the 35-day partial government shutdown.

He noted that the official jobless rate fell, and that a broader measure of employment that includes part-timers who would prefer full-time jobs and those too discouraged to search for a job, swooped down from 8.1 percent to 7.3 percent.

The varied combination of data points “may be painting a picture that says the economy is very close to full employment,” Mr. Clemons said, noting that the economy has added 20 million jobs during the expansion. “There’s not a whole lot of net jobs to be added, so the unemployment rate is driven more by people entering and leaving the work force. And you get that tight supply which pushes wages higher.”

A sizable chunk of workers who have joined the labor force over the past three years have been young women 25 to 34, reversing a long decline.

More From The New York Times:



365 Days Page
Comment ( 0 )