Many economists predict slower growth, in part due to Xi’s focus on Communist Party control.

Xi Jinping laid out ambitious plans two years ago to expand China’s wealth and double the size of the nation’s economy by 2035. The target would require China’s economy to grow an average of nearly 5% annually over 15 years, according to estimates by officials involved in policy-making. Many economists inside and outside of China now believe 5% won’t be achievable, not just for this year, but also for the longer term. A major challenge is Mr. Xi’s political agenda. Since he rose to power in 2012, Mr. Xi has put ideological rectitude, national security and Communist Party control at the center of policy. And he has insisted on greater state control over the economy—an approach that many economists say has come at the expense of the dynamic private sector that propelled China’s extraordinary growth. Private-sector economists, the World Bank and other institutions expect China’s growth to rebound to around 4.5% next year after an estimated 3% or so in 2022, assuming Beijing eventually relaxes its zero-Covid policy. Many economists predict growth will remain weaker than before the pandemic, in part due to a shrinking workforce and rising debt levels.

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