What Tuesday’s Electorate PROBABLY Will Look Like

Two of the biggest questions heading into Election Day are: “What will the electorate look like?” And: “How will these voters break?” Well, our weekly NBC/WSJ/Annenberg polls have collected merged data from interviews with 6,346 likely voters from Sept. 2 through Oct. 29, and here’s a pretty good clue from this 6,000-plus sample:

– Overall congressional preference: GOP 49%, Dem 44%
– Men: GOP 54%-40%
– Women: Dem 49%-43%
– Whites: GOP 56%-37%
– African American: Dem 88%-7%
– Latinos: Dem 57%-37%
– 18-29: Dem 51%-42%
– 30-44: Dem 50%-43%
– 45-64: GOP 50%-43%
– 65+: GOP 53%-40%

What is striking about these numbers is how similar they are to the 2010 exit poll, so make of that what you will. Also, these 6,000-plus interviews are a reminder to the political community to never make TOO MUCH of one single poll — like a survey saying that Republicans are slightly leading among a small sample of “definite” young voters. The other polls and aggregates don’t back that up.

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