HUFF POLLSTER: Have Polls Been Understating Dems’ Chances In Georgia?

ENCOURAGING NEWS FOR NUNN IN GEORGIA – Two new polls in Georgia show Democrat Michelle Nunn running even or slightly ahead of Republican David Perdue. Have GA polls been understating Nunn’s support? – The New York Times’ Nate Cohn recently argued that previous Georgia polls may be understating the size of Georgia’s African American electorate.

New Hampshire Senate – A new automated New England College poll is the first since mid-September to find Scott Brown (R) ahead, with a 1-point edge over incumbent Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D). NEC’s past two polls, released late last month, had Shaheen leading by 1 and 7 points.

Kansas Senate – The latest round of polling agrees on a close race between Sen. Pat Roberts (R) and Greg Orman (i) but differs on who’s ahead — a new Remington (R) poll joins Fox and CNN in giving Roberts the edge, while PPP’s (D) latest survey still gave Orman a 3-point advantage. The Pollster model finds Roberts up by about a point, with the race continuing to look like a tossup.

Overall Senate Outlook – Polls released in other states on Tuesday generally reaffirmed the current polling snapshot. The HuffPost Pollster poll tracking model continues to show Republicans with leads of 3 percent or better in enough states that would add up to 50 Senate seats, and narrower edges in Iowa, Colorado and Kansas, which would bring their seat count to 53 (although Kansas independent Greg Orman has pledged to caucus with Republicans should they win a majority. The model puts the probability of a Republican majority at 62 percent, as of this writing.

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