Climate models overshot warming of the past 15 years by 300%

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In short, SCC analysis makes cheap power, such as coal, look unaffordable while it makes expensive power, such as wind, appear well worth the costs.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) measures how much damage is done to society by an additional ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It is a cost estimate, and as such, it is factored into the required cost-benefit analysis of any regulation that would affect emissions. A high enough SCC means that nearly any regulation that seeks to reduce CO2 will appear justified under cost-benefit analysis. The SCC serves to justify and legitimize cap-and-trade, carbon taxes, wind power mandates and green subsidies, says Marlo Lewis, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

There has been a 17-year pause in global warming, and climate model projections and actual observations have continued to diverge over the years. On average, climate models overshot warming of the past 15 years by 300 percent, and climate studies indicate that today’s climate is better than earlier models had predicted. As such, shouldn’t the Obama administration’s SCC estimates be lower today than they were four years ago?

– In fact, the SCC estimate has only gone up.
– Its 2010 SCC estimates for the year 2020 were $6.80, $26.30, $41.70 and $80.70, while its 2013 estimates for that same year were $12, $43, $65 and $129.

Cato Institute climatologist Chip Knappenberger chalks the higher numbers up to nothing more than political calculation.

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