The Numbers That Scare Senate Democrats

Voting with Obama 97% of the time is going to end some careers.

Three sets of numbers have emerged in recent weeks that bode ill for Democratic hopes to keep the U.S. Senate. The first came from new Federal Election Commission filings and news reports on campaign fundraising for the fourth quarter of 2013, and cash-on-hand on Dec. 31.

Seven states carried by Mitt Romney have Democratic senators whose seats are up in November. Overall in these states, the leading Republican candidates raised $6.5 million while their Democratic opponents—including four incumbents—raised $6.7 million during the last quarter. Five Republicans outraised their Democratic opponents, including in all three states (Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia) where the Democratic senators are leaving and in two of the four states (Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina) where Democratic incumbents are trying to hold on.

Republicans also whittled away at the Democratic cash-on-hand advantage in these states. Democrats had an $18.5 million to $11.5 million cash advantage at the end of September. By the end of December, Democrats had roughly $21 million, Republicans $15.5 million.

The second troubling number for Democrats is Gallup’s presidential job-approval rating, which was 42% the week ending last Sunday. The president’s average approval in these seven Senate states is roughly 36%. If that’s the case on Election Day, he will likely sink his party’s candidates, who probably cannot run more than five points ahead of Mr. Obama’s rating.

Then there is the nonpartisan Congressional Quarterly’s summary of last year’s legislative voting patterns. The four red state Democratic senators running for re-election gave Mr. Obama’s policies almost perfect support, led by Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu and Alaska’s Mark Begich at 97%, followed by North Carolina’s Kay Hagan at 96% and Arkansas’s Mike Pryor at 90%.

They are now trying to distance themselves from the president. Mr. Begich says he’s “disappointed” in the State of the Union address. Ms. Hagan refused to appear with Mr. Obama when he visited North Carolina Jan. 15.

These problems—a diminishing fundraising edge, low presidential approval, and support for Mr. Obama’s policies—could cause problems for Democratic senators in purple states as well.

Four purple states already appear promising for Republicans. In Michigan, New Hampshire, Minnesota & Virginia Democrat candidates have supported Mr. Obama’s policies greater than 90% of the time.

Today the GOP has seven Democratic seats clearly in play and several more shaping up. If Republicans can increase that to 10 Democratic seats, their chances of regaining Senate control and providing an important institutional check on Mr. Obama’s agenda during his last two years go up dramatically.

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