Weakened terror group trying to grab headlines

Somali group lashing out abroad because it’s failing at home, analyst says.

The deadly mall attack in Kenya is a sign that the al-Qaeda-affiliated group that carried it out has been dealt a blow in Somalia and they are looking to generate headlines with more high-profile attacks in the region, a regional expert says.

The group that carried out the attack, al-Shabab, wants to establish an Islamist government in Somalia.

In recent years, however, African Union troops in Somalia have driven the militants out of most parts of Mogadishu as a U.S.-supported government there has attempted to establish control over the country. At one time, al-Shabab controlled parts of Mogadishu, the capital.

The attack in Nairobi underscores al-Shabab’s organizational skills and their commitment to die for a cause, said David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and a professor at George Washington University.

But it also highlights that the group has to rely on high-profile terrorist attacks that generate headlines because they lack popular support and have failed in any direct fights with African Union forces in Somalia.

“Increasingly, al-Shabab has alienated the average Somali,” Shinn said.

The Kenya attack also comes shortly before a deadly attack against a church in Pakistan, but analysts warn against concluding that radical Islam is gaining strength. A faction of the Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility for it.

“These bombings are so common now,” Shinn said. “I would attribute it to happenstance and coincidence.”

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