Advisers Craft Policy Agenda In a Narrow Political Window

8/23/24

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from The Wall Street Journal,
8/23/24:

A policy-development process that typically takes presidential candidates months—or years—to get right has been truncated, with just over 70 days to go until the November election. Harris faces the challenge of charting a distinct agenda while still serving under her unpopular boss, making it difficult to disavow Biden’s policy stances.

And every new policy proposal she puts forward gives political ammunition to her opponent, former President Donald Trump.

So far, Harris has endorsed many of Biden’s leftovers—the suite of proposals that he didn’t manage to get through Congress, from paid family leave to affordable child care. They are all ideas that Harris has long advocated for both in public and private.

She also has proposed reworked or expanded versions of other Biden policies—including a more generous child tax credit—an agenda that can be summarized as Biden 2.0-plus. Harris is planning to build on the Biden administration policies she wants to emphasize, with an economic message that seeks to better connect with voters.

The vice president’s message on the campaign trail centers on building what she calls an “opportunity economy” in which “every American has the opportunity to own a home, start a business, and build wealth, including intergenerational wealth.”

Harris released a policy plan last week that set a goal of building three million new housing units in her four years in office to address the supply shortage that has contributed to high prices. She also proposed tax incentives to help first-time home buyers, including $25,000 in down-payment assistance.

Harris made headlines for proposing what she called the first federal ban on price gouging for food and groceries. But the proposal, which Harris’s team framed as a centerpiece of her plan to lower prices, is limited in scope and likely would have little immediate effect on inflation. Harris’s team is modeling the federal ban on laws in dozens of states that ban price gouging during emergencies, such as a natural disaster, according to advisers.

She proposed restoring the expanded child tax credit of up to $3,600 a child, which was put in place in 2021 during the pandemic and expired at the end of that year. She also threw her support behind a new further expansion of the tax credit that would provide up to $6,000 in total relief for middle- and low-income families during the first year of a child’s life.

Both tax-credit proposals would require congressional approval and could face opposition from Republicans. The issue could see movement if GOP lawmakers who have endorsed the idea reach a compromise with Democrats. Ohio Sen. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, has called for an expansion of the tax credit.

The makeup of Congress will make or break Harris’s agenda if she wins the White House. Most nonpartisan analysts think Republicans are favored to take control of the Senate, while the House majority is up for grabs.

If the Democrats hold on to their Senate majority, they are likely to use a process called reconciliation to pass some of their top priorities.

enate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) told reporters this week that if Harris wins, Democrats planned to focus on increasing the supply of affordable housing, cutting greenhouse-gas emissions and eliminating Trump-era tax cuts.

Harris’s policy advisers are working on additional proposals that could be rolled out in coming weeks, including a plan to boost small businesses. But aides said they don’t expect her agenda to include the level of detail craved by Washington policy wonks.

Some advisers also said Harris thinks it is important to articulate a broad vision to voters and to figure out the details based on what actually can get passed in Congress. She is willing to make incremental progress…

A significant part of a potential Harris administration will also involve implementing laws Congress already has passed, according to advisers, including a roughly $1 trillion infrastructure package, climate change, tax and healthcare legislation and a multibillion-dollar measure to strengthen the domestic semiconductor industry.

So far, Harris and her team haven’t laid out a detailed plan for how she will pay for her proposals, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates could increase deficits by at least $1.7 trillion over a decade. (Trump hasn’t said how he would pay for his plans, either.)

Harris aides said she would pay for her proposals in part through tax increases on corporations and wealthy Americans that Biden proposed in his most recent budget plan. But she likely would need to identify additional revenue-raising proposals to offset the full cost of her plan.

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