The top 10 Democratic presidential candidates for 2024, ranked

There was a time very recently when American presidential elections were said to be decided by two states: Florida and Ohio.

The bad news for Democrats is that the 2022 election confirmed those are now effectively red states — and how. Republicans dominated statewide in both of them, from governor on down, and won by double-digits in almost every race, even though the national election overall was a disappointment for them.

The good news for Democrats is that the rest of the Rust Belt and the Midwest in 2022 suggest the Trump era is wearing thin.

Below are our latest rankings. A reminder that they are in order of the most likely to be the nominee, which takes into account both their likelihood of running and their formidability if they do.

Others worth mentioning: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), former New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu, Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)

10. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker:

9. Josh Shapiro:

8. Gretchen Whitmer:

7. Bernie Sanders:

6. Gavin Newsom

5. Amy Klobuchar

4. Jared Polis

3. Kamala D. Harris

2. Pete Buttigieg

1. President Biden

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