A new covid wave may be coming. Most Americans shouldn’t worry.
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In the coming weeks, the United States could see another wave of covid-19 infections driven by a subvariant of the omicron strain, known as BA.2. While the federal government needs to do much more to prepare for this potential surge, most Americans should not be worried.
There are three factors that determine the level of concern about new variants. First, is it more contagious? Here, BA.2 raises red flags. Analyses from Britain suggest its growth rate is 80 percent faster than the original omicron variant, meaning it will likely displace existing strains and become dominant.
Two other factors provide reassurance despite BA.2’s transmissibility. One is that it does not cause more severe disease as compared to the original omicron strain, known as BA.1, which is a milder variant than some previous strains such as delta. The other is that BA.2 is not so substantially different from BA.1 that it escapes immunity from vaccines or prior infection.
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