R for Reliability?

3/17/21
 
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from TPPF,
3/16/21:

What to Know: ERCOT is naïve about how much power Texas can generate when we need it, one expert says.

The TPPF Take: The way ERCOT calculates its reserve capacity from renewable source is flawed.

“ERCOT’s reserve forecasts are calculated based on the average contribution of each energy source during peak demand periods,” says TPPF’s Jason Isaac. “Wind and solar energy are intermittent, meaning their contributions to the grid plummet dramatically when the wind stops blowing or the sun stops shining. And although ERCOT clearly has no control over the weather, this challenging situation is made worse when forecasts are based on assumptions that create a false sense of security about the reliability of the grid.”

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