Researchers Lower Fatality Projections In Coronavirus Model Used By White House
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The researchers whose model the White House has used to help guide its coronavirus response lowered their estimate Sunday for the number of Americans projected to die during the first wave of the pandemic.
The model, from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, now projects 81,766 deaths in the United States through Aug. 1, with most of the fatalities occurring by the middle of May. The IHME team projected a range of between 49,431 and 136,401 for the same period.
Before Sunday, the researchers estimated a range of between 39,966 and 177,866 deaths in the United States from coronavirus, with a best-guess estimate of 93,531 deaths.
The 11,765 fewer deaths would mark a 14% decrease for the model’s target projection, and a 30% decrease for the worst-case scenario.
The updated model also predicts fewer hospitalizations and patients requiring treatment in ICUs.
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