Where Does Russia Stand Now?

from The Gray Area:
Maudlin Economics has quoted George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures as follows with regard to teh surprising events of this weekend in Russia. Many analysts see this weekend’s short-lived rebellion in Russia as a loss for Vladimir Putin. The regime survived, but is supposedly “weakened.” George Friedman is not so sure. If Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is to be believed, the uprising was months in the making, a result of the conventional military deliberately withholding supplies and, more recently, of a direct Russian missile attack on his troops. This may explain why his march seemed to be directed more at the Russian General Staff than at Putin himself. Whatever the case, the affair was over in a day; either it failed or it was meant to be little more than a gesture. Knowing what happened in this incident will take a long time to sort out.
  • If this was indeed a coup attempt, it never seriously threatened Putin’s power.
  • Suppressing a coup attempt wasn’t the failure many seem to believe. The failure was creating the situation in which Wagner had to be hired.
  • Putin vastly misunderstood Ukraine’s army and his own, and instead of disengaging he hired Wagner. This created chaos which led to the insurrection.
  • The issue now is whether this episode will force Putin to reconsider the war plans that aren’t working as expected.
The best-case outcome to all this would be if it forces Putin to declare victory and withdraw from Ukraine. Aside from ending the violence, reconstruction would provide a global economic stimulus. That may seem unlikely but stranger things have happened. Best analysis I've heard so far.

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