Apocalypse Not, Krugman

Responding to the terrorist attacks in Paris, economics Nobel laureate and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman urged Americans to resist fear-based rhetoric from people with a political agenda. Sensible enough advice, except that Krugman then went on to say that when it comes to his preferred agenda—which includes massive new government interventions in the energy sector—then all of a sudden the fear-mongering rhetoric is spot-on. Indeed, Krugman went so far as to ludicrously claim that civilization itself hangs in the balance when it comes to climate change.

In this post I’ll draw on the latest UN climate change report to show that the much-ballyhooed peer-reviewed consensus literature makes no claim that global will will destroy civilization, except in the vacuous sense in which dozens of possible threats—ranging from asteroids to cheap suitcase nukes to killer viruses to super-intelligent computers to hostile aliens to supercollider-created “strangelets”—hypothetically might destroy life as we know it. But in terms of a rational evaluation of dangers according to their likelihood of occurrence, climate change doesn’t threaten civilization itself any more than the terrorist groups Krugman dismisses in his column.

To set the context, here is Krugman’s position on the reaction of some right-wingers to the Paris attacks:

Like millions of people, I’ve been obsessively following the news from Paris, putting aside other things to focus on the horror. It’s the natural human reaction. But let’s be clear: it’s also the reaction the terrorists want. And that’s something not everyone seems to understand.

Take, for example, Jeb Bush’s declaration that “this is an organized attempt to destroy Western civilization.” No, it isn’t. It’s an organized attempt to sow panic…

Krugman spends most of the rest of his column complaining about Republicans who supported military intervention in response to such tragedies (though he inexplicably fails to mention that his preferred candidate Hillary Clinton voted in favor of invading Iraq—I guess Krugman ran out of column space). Yet he can’t restrict himself to the issue at hand, and offers us this throwaway remark:

Finally, terrorism is just one of many dangers in the world, and shouldn’t be allowed to divert our attention from other issues. Sorry, conservatives: when President Obama describes climate change as the greatest threat we face, he’s exactly right. Terrorism can’t and won’t destroy our civilization, but global warming could and might.

Beyond being guilty of the exact same fear-mongering that his column supposedly criticizes, notice that Krugman isn’t even being consistent: Even the most over-the-top warnings about climate change destroying civilization play out over the course of centuries. So is Krugman saying terrorists in the next 200 years can’t figure out ways to accelerate climate change? What if ISIS recruits millions of people around the world to set trees on fire for the next century? After all, that’s a lot less dangerous than other types of terrorist missions.

In an earlier IER post, I showed that the latest UN report on climate change—specifically, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—cannot justify in cost/benefit terms a popular goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. In our current post, let me just reproduce two key pieces of evidence from that report to show just how baseless Krugman’s rhetoric is.

Before proceeding, let me issue a caveat: I am not saying that we should blindly endorse whatever is in the latest IPCC report. Yet my point is that the whole purpose of these periodic reports was to show the world what the “consensus science” said, in order to inform the policy debates over climate change. So if progressives are going to use the IPCC reports to bludgeon anyone on talk radio who says Al Gore is a fraud, then I am going to point out when people like Krugman say things that are not remotely supported by the IPCC reports. One could even say that Krugman is denying the climate science himself.

Under any realistic scenario, the UN’s own climate change report shows that Paul Krugman is being ridiculous when claiming that global warming threatens civilization itself. Of course, he’s parroting the politicians whose politics he adores, regardless of their veracity. Now to be sure, if we go out to the year 2300, anything can happen in a computer simulation. But by the same token, is Krugman really able to confidently assure us that terrorists pose no big threat over the next 285 years?

Progressive leftists can’t have it both ways. If they want to (understandably) criticize their opponents for fear-based rhetoric justifying foreign policy goals, then these progressives should practice what they preach and stop trying to terrify everyone about climate change. Their alarm bells are especially unjustified because their claims aren’t supported by the very “scientific consensus” that they trumpet in other columns. What are these guys, a bunch of science deniers?

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