Economy Is Strong. Leadership Is Shaky. Which Will Win Out in 2019?

Moves like Mnuchin’s phone calls to bank C.E.O.s could create a broader crisis of confidence.

Sometime in the last couple of months, predictions of a major economic downturn or recession in 2019 went from being a crank view to the conventional wisdom.

It is true that the global economy is sputtering, and that the stock market is in its worst pullback in a decade, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down more than 19 percent since Sept. 20 as of Monday’s close. But this sense of gloom and pessimism has gotten ahead of the facts on the ground, especially concerning the United States economy.

The real risk is not that insurmountable challenges knock the economy off course. It is that poor leadership converts moderate economic shocks into a crisis.

The combination of erratic behavior from the president and a thinly staffed government in the United States; the potential crises facing other major economies; and the lack of trust amid allies and major trade partners could make routine economic challenges turn into something worse.

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