Unemployment Is a Geography Lesson

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy is at full employment, or close to it. Yet it doesn’t feel that way for many Americans. Even if you have a secure job, you probably know people who don’t.

On the other hand, many small-business owners and HR people complain that they have trouble finding qualified workers—and that’s true for well-paid, low-skill jobs too.

What gives?

My theory: it’s all about geography.

In September, the US unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. That number got overshadowed by a more disturbing 33,000-person drop in total employment, due to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

But 4.2% unemployment is about as low as we’ve seen in recent history. Here’s a chart showing the monthly jobless rate since 1970.

Geography Matters

Part of the problem: our 4.2% national unemployment rate disguises a lot of regional variation.

Fortunately, the BLS collects data down to the county level, which gives us a more detailed picture.

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