A Way Forward in the North Korea Crisis

by Philip Bobbitt,

There is nothing the US can do to North Korea that will lead to its renunciation of its nuclear weapons program. That is because North Korea already holds US allies hostage to violence we cannot control—and may already or will soon pose a similar threat to the US homeland—and thus presents an unacceptable risk of retaliation for any American offensive military action. There is nothing the US can do for North Korea that might induce it to denuclearize, because keeping North Korea on a war footing vis-à-vis the US keeps the regime of Kim Jong Un in power. There is nothing the international community, including China, can do to North Korea by enforcing sanctions, or for North Korea by relieving it of sanctions, that would convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons because the regime is convinced, with some reason, that it is only the threats it poses to others that keep it from suffering regime change. Nevertheless, the US cannot tolerate or co-exist with a North Korean nuclear capability.

There is however one option that has yet to be considered and that has some promise.

Induce a nuclear guarantee for the North Korean regime from China. If China can be convinced to give a credible guarantee that it will defend North Korea against a US invasion or preemptive strike, and North Korea against the US invasion or preemptive strike, and North Korea can be induced to accept it, then there could be a way out of the current impasse.

The course I propose is not without costs: it might increase the risk of a Chinese-US confrontation, and it would link Chinese nuclear strategy to a surrogate state that is inclined to get into conflicts. It is, however, a more promising option than any being canvassed at the present. And time, at this juncture, is not on our side.

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