Finding America’s Murder Problem

by John R. Lott, Jr.,

The vast majority of murders in the United States occur in just a tiny percentage of counties, and even in those counties there are large areas where there are no murders. Fact is, there is not a nationwide murder problem—and therefore we can’t expect blanket solutions to promote public safety.

The country can actually be divided into three types of places—places where there are no murders (which make up the majority), places where there are a few murders, and a small number of places where murders are all too common.

In 2014, the most recent year that a county level breakdown is available, some 69 percent of counties have one or fewer murders, and they contain about 20 percent of the population. 54 percent of counties (containing 11 percent of the population) had no murders at all. These counties account for only 4 percent of all murders in the country.

The worst 1 percent of counties have 19 percent of the population and 37 percent of the murders. The worst 2 percent of counties contain 47 percent of the population and account for 51 percent of the murders. A full 68 percent of murders occurred in only 5 percent of counties.

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