‘Could Le Pen win?’

A guide to the French presidential election.

Judging from his Twitter feed, President Trump is keeping a close eye on Sunday’s French presidential election.

With polls showing the top four, radically different candidates neck-and-neck, and the outcome central to the European Union and to NATO, it is little surprise Trump is paying attention. The election is possibly the most important of 2017.

In a Friday morning tweet, Trump noted the terror attack in Paris on Thursday, and said it will have a “big effect” on Sunday’s election.

What is happening this weekend?

The French will go to the polls on Sunday to vote in the first round of their presidential election and will choose from 11 candidates. The top two candidates from that vote will go into a run-off in May. Whoever wins that vote will be the new French President and will replace current Socialist President François Hollande in the Élysée Palace.

Whom should I be keeping an eye on?

While there are 11 candidates, there are four major candidates who are running almost neck-and-neck, and have a chance of getting through to the next round.

Emmanuel Macron (En Marche!)

If there is a “French Obama,” Macron is it. Posing as a pragmatic, independent centrist, the dashing 39-year-old has captured the hearts of many French citizens looking for a “change” candidate without lurching to the extreme left or right. In many ways, his style models former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who led his Labour Party to power by adopting a so-called “third-way” centrism.

Macron’s background as a former civil servant and investment banker who served in Hollande’s government have led his critics to say he is less of a change candidate as he is a savvy spokesman for globalist elites and the status quo.

But Macron seems not to have been too shaken by these criticisms, and he has gone from a long shot to leading favorite.

Marine Le Pen (Front national)

While Macron may be the favorite, Le Pen and her rise to the top has been the story of French politics for over a year. The right-wing populist has moved the once extremist party that bathed in anti-Semitism under her father Jean-Marie Le Pen to “de-toxify” itself of its racist baggage, and embrace more populist policies.

Le Pen has had significant success, and has proved to be a shrewd politician as she moved her party’s focus to restricting immigration, opposing Islamism and leaving the European Union. On the economy, she has blasted what she calls “unregulated liberalism” and has called for protectionist policies, as well as a tax on businesses employing workers from abroad.

With her focus on what she calls “economic patriotism,” as well as her strong stances on immigration and Islam, she invites comparisons to President Trump – comparisons she has welcomed. She has praised Trump multiple times and was seen at Trump Tower earlier this year.

While Le Pen’s chances on getting into the second round are strong, as she sits in second place in the polls, her chances in the second round seem significantly weaker.

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