Kim’s Last Laugh

An unyielding North Korea launches its biggest nuclear test yet–and there’s little the U.S. alone can do to stop it.

On the Apothecary’s shelf in the Northeastern Chinese city of Dandong sit small bottles of “frog oil”–a traditional Chinese remedy collected from female frogs’ egg sacs. “It’s very good for blood circulation,” says the Chinese shopkeeper. But he has a sourcing problem–the frogs come from neighboring North Korea, where business takes a backseat to geopolitics. “The sanctions have hit my business hard,” he says, requesting anonymity for fear of running afoul of the government. “Before I could easily get 50 kg [110 lb.] of frog oil–now, only 5 kg [11 lb.].”

Perched on the Yalu River, which forms most of China’s border with North Korea, Dandong is about as close as you can get to the Hermit Kingdom. The city of 2.5 million is famed for rare North Korean contraband such as blueberry liquor, “7.27” brand cigarettes, medicinal sea cucumbers–and frog oil, which fetches up to $450 per kilo. But since China signed up to the U.N.’s toughest sanctions against North Korea yet in March, after Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test, the daily caravan of trucks rumbling over Dandong’s iron bridge from the North has slowed to a trickle. This has hit the pockets of Chinese purveyors of contraband, not to mention the regime of North Korea’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. China accounts for 90% of North Korea’s trade, most of which passes through Dandong. “North Korea still wants to buy and sell a lot of goods, but because of the sanctions the cash flow of North Korean companies is limited, meaning their buying power is weak,” says one Dandong trader

But even stronger sanctions have failed to weaken Kim’s belligerence. On Sept. 9, North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear test–the largest to date, with a yield of some 10 to 20 kilotons, comparable to the Hiroshima bomb. Worse, unlike in earlier tests the bomb was described as a “nuclear device,” which suggests the North is moving closer to being able to miniaturize a nuclear weapon and put it in a missile. The test prompted worldwide condemnation, and President Barack Obama reiterated that “the United States does not, and never will, accept North Korea as a nuclear state.” But it’s become increasingly clear that the one country that might be able to stop that from happening–China, North Korea’s only ally–won’t take the necessary hard steps. “The Chinese endgame is the survival of North Korea as a state and leveraging whatever benefits they can along the border,” says Adam Cathcart, an East Asia expert at Britain’s University of Leeds. Which means the next U.S. President may be forced to deal with a far more dangerous North Korea.

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