France
Schizophrenic?

Macron likely to win, but Le Pen still has a chance

4/21/22
from Maudlin Economics,
4/21/22:

French voters vote for president this Sunday, with Emmanuel Macron looking likely to win re-election. Marine Le Pen still has a chance, though, which could bring significant changes.

The two candidates’ economic platforms are actually quite similar, with differences mainly in energy policy and European integration. Macron would raise the retirement age while Le Pen would enact several policies favoring French natives over foreign nationals. Both would expand France’s nuclear power capacity, but Le Pen is skeptical about other renewables. Le Pen says she no longer advocates leaving the European Union, but also proposes several changes the EU could never accept. A best, a Le Pen victory would mean paralysis for the EU and it might lead to a “Frexit” scenario. A Le Pen victory is unlikely if the polling data is correct. But, there’s a possibility lightning will strike this Sunday, with potentially giant consequences.

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